Curious case of this Rakesh Jhunjhunwala pick; you should still buy; here is why

This Rakesh Jhunjhunwala infrastructure pick has barely moved in the last 10 years. However, over the last three years, it did rally 24 per cent, but underperformed the benchmark Sensex, which jumped 30 per cent during the same period. To add to worries of investors, looking into the last one-month performance, the stock has shed over 11 per cent! 

Although the returns have not been favourable, global brokerage Macquarie just last week maintained its outperform rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 177. From the current market price, Macquarie's target entails 20 per cent upside on the stock. 

Domestic brokerages such as Reliance Industries and ICICI Securities also have a buy rating on the stock of this company.

The company is none other than NCC, a leading player in the construction industry.  Shares of this construction and engineering firm gained over 1 per cent to Rs 97 on the BSE in Monday's trade. 

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala along with his wife Rekha Jhunjhunwala own a whopping 9.44 per cent stake in NCC, shareholding data available on BSE for the March quarter of FY18 showed.  

According to global brokerage Macquarie, the sell-off in infra stocks such as NCC is unjustified. 

"NCC is currently trading at FY19 PE of 12.2 times. Plus, it has a lifetime high order backlog. We, therefore, expects strong execution to lead growth in FY19-20," said Macquarie in a research note. 

Reliance Securities expects NCC’s revenue and earnings to clock 26 per cent CAGR each through FY18-FY20E. "We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised SOTP-based target price of Rs 152," the brokerage said in its quaterly review report on NCC. 

Going by NCC's March quarter results, it received robust order inflows of Rs 23266 crore for FY18, surpassing its initial guidance of Rs 12000 crore. The company also said that it expects to receive strong order inflows in FY19E worth Rs 14000 crore. 

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Consequently, ICICI Securities expects NCC's topline to grow robustly at 26.6 per cent CAGR in FY18-20E. "We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of Rs 160/share. We value NCC’s domestic construction business at Rs 150/share (9x FY20E EV/EBITDA implying PE multiple of 18.0x FY20E EPS) and real estate business at Rs 10/share (0.5x P/BV)," said ICICI Securities in a note. 

NCC had reported healthy earnings for the March quarter 2018, backed by strong operational growth. Net profit during the March quarter grew by 61.2 per cent to Rs 102.7 crore compared to Rs 63.7 crore in corresponding period last fiscal.

Revenue from operations increased 11.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2,395 crore for the quarter ended March 2018. EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) shot up 74.8 per cent to Rs 304.4 crore and margin expanded 460 basis points to 12.7 per cent compared to year-ago.