Macros, global cues and more: Key factors that will determine market trend next week

The Indian stock markets during the upcoming week are expected to take directions from domestic macro-economic data points slated to be released from March 12 onwards. Apart from the data, developments on the global trade front, along with the direction of foreign funds, will also determine the course of key Indian equity indices, said market observers.

"Market participants will keep a close eye on domestic macro-economic data releases. The government will announce inflation data based on consumer price index (CPI) for February and industrial production data (Index of Industrial Production, IIP) for January on March 12," D K Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director of SMC Investments and Advisors, told IANS.

"Besides, global macro-economic data, developments in the Budget session of Parliament, trends in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will continue to dictate the trend on the bourses next week," he said.

During March 5-9, figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that FPIs invested in equities worth Rs 1,384.36 crore, or $212.98 million.

Provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold-off scrips worth Rs 280.74 crore, while DIIs purchased scrips worth Rs 131.07 crore during last week.

On technical levels, if the NSE Nifty50 trades and closes above the 10,288-level in the upcoming week, then it is likely to test 10,375 to 10,463-10,565 levels, as per Arpit Jain, Assistant Vice President at Arihant Capital Markets.

"However, if the Nifty trades and closes below 10,165 level, then it can test 10,077 to 9,990-9,888 levels," Jain told IANS.

"Broadly, the weekly trend is down, hence at higher levels, we are likely to witness selling pressure," he added.

Last week, the Indian equity markets were engulfed by bears as global trade war fears following US President Donald Trump`s proposal to impose tariff on import of metals, along with the turmoil in the domestic banking sector, continued to erode the risk-taking appetite of investors.

On a weekly basis, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE shed 739.8 points or 2.17 per cent to close at 33,307.14 points.

The wider Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) closed trade at 10,226.85 points -- down 231.5 points or 2.21 per cent from its previous week's close.

"With global uncertainty over the US trade war and its reaction, all eyes are also on the proposed meeting of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un and President Trump in the coming months," Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls, told IANS.

According to Vinod Nair, Head Of Research at Geojit Financial Services, absence of major triggers to maintain the upward trend is keeping investors on the sidelines.

"Though the long-term outlook for the domestic economy continues to be strong, issues like global trade headwinds, NPA (non-performing assets) issues and US Federal Reserve's rate-hike trajectory are adding volatility to the market," said Nair.

"Market participants are cautiously awaiting the CPI and IIP data next week. Inflation is expected to come down to 4.74 per cent in February which will ease bond yield in the near term. IIP is expected to show some moderation," he added.