NTPC, Hindalco to SpiceJet: Which shares to buy?

Indian equity markets have been volatile for quite some time and in a span of six months the market oscillated between 35,000 and over 40,000 levels. Under such situation, picking out right stocks is not easy. However, information is wealth for investors. Here are the reports of brokerages on these five stocks:

NTPC (BUY):
Edelweiss said in its view after generating flat  earnings per share (EPS) growth over FY16–19, NTPC would post a strong 15 percent CAGR over FY19–21 on the back of: 1) recoupment of under-recoveries; 2) 8GW of cumulative commercialisation of capacity; and 3) higher plant load factors (PLFs) amid stronger demand in the country. 

"The stock too is trading at an implied P/BV of 1.2x FY21E. All in all, NTPC remains our top pick in the utilities space. Government divestment/merger plans remain a key risk though.  Maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with a target price of Rs 158."

Hindalco (BUY):
JM Financial said Hindalco's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of Rs 34.7 billion in 1QFY20, was in-line with its expections. However, the metal fundamentals remain stable with continued world ex-China deficit and China expected to turn into marginal deficit market (from surplus) in CY19. "We downward revise our estimates as we incorporate lower LME assumptions. Cost competitiveness in Hindalco's India operations driven by increased coal security, quick ramp–up of new capacities and high margins at Novelis/Aleris with higher proportion of automotive products in the mix continues to drive an upward earnings trajectory for the consolidated entity. Maintain BUY."

BHEL (HOLD):
BHEL reported a loss of Rs 2.2 billion in 1QFY20 with falling sales at Rs 45.3 billion (24% YoY). Execution in a few of its power projects is deferred to 2QFY20 on pending clearance pertaining to land, material dispatch and delayed equipment supply to BHEL. Although debtors’ collections improved in 1QFY20, JM Financial said it believed that working capital pressures may sustain with new orders having a) back-ended payments with near zero advances and b) State Gencos (49% of debtors) forming majority of new orders which typically have elongated payment schedules. Also, muted 1QFY20 sales could result in BHEL struggling to meet its FY20 MoU target of RS 330 billion. 

"Despite weak macros and muted 1QFY20 execution, we optimistically factor Rs 350 billion of OIs in FY20, which is within the RS 300-400 billion range prevailing since FY13. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rs 80 (at 15x FY21 EPS)." 

SpiceJet (BUY):
JM Financial  SpiceJet is likely to emerge as the second-largest domestic airline with strong fleet addition and higher international presence. "We forecast a 60% EBITDAR growth over FY19-21E driven by scaling up of operations and higher spreads. We ascribe an EV/EBITDAR multiple of 7x to arrive at a fair value of INR 160. Maintain BUY."