Retail inflation, factory output data: Here's what to expect today

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for the month of November and Consumer Price Index (CPI), or retail inflation, data for December will be released today at 5.30 pm. The data will be crucial this time as it will provide clear picture of impact of demonetisation. 

IIP, or factory output for the month of October stood 178, a drop of 1.9% as compared to October, 2015. The industrial output for the month of September stood at 179.5.

If India's manufacturing PMI (purchase managers index) is any indication, then IIP is likely to come in lower. 

Nikkei India’s report on PMI on December 1, 2016, showed that the index was lower in November to 52.3 from 54.4 in October last year.

ALSO READ: Demonetisation shaves two points off India’s purchase manufacturing index

The cumulative growth for the period April-October 2016 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at (-) 0.3%.

source: tradingeconomics.com

CPI, or retail inflation, in the month of November eased to 3.63% on year-on-year basis as compared to 5.20% during the same period last year. In October 2016, CPI stood at 4.20%, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) had said. 

According to chief India economist Pranjul Bhandari, of HSBC, CPI is likely to fall further to 3.3% in December from 3.6% in November, as falling food prices may offset increase in oil prices. 

On IIP, she estimates that despite expected sequential decline, in annual terms, IIP may register a positive 0.5% year-on-year growth due to favourable base effects. 

source: tradingeconomics.com

Moreover, on CPI data, Aditi Nayar, analyst from ICRA had told Zeebiz, “Given the deferral of demand for big ticket consumption items, demonetisation is likely to modestly reduce demand-pull inflation."

She added, "Anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers are choosing to minimise discretionary purchases. Consumption-oriented sectors, particularly those which involved a sizable magnitude of cash transactions, such as real estate, construction, jewellery, travel and tourism, retail and trade are likely to experience a lull in the immediate term.”

source: tradingeconomics.com

Madan Sabnavis and Manisha Sachdeva of Care Ratings analysts, on December 13, 2016, said inflation rate will be moderated in December as horticulture will be impacted on falling price levels.

“However, the index will move towards the 5% mark subsequently as these trends get reversed and will be influenced by rabi outcomes,” the two said.