Skymet forecast: Good monsoon for central region, low in east, northeast and south

With high probability of normal monsoon at 97 percent predicted pan India for 2018, private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday forecast central India to receive highest rainfall at 108 percent between June and September. A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsoon. Below 90 per cent rainfall is considered deficient, 95 per cent is considered below normal and between 105 and 110 per cent is above normal.

Giving its regional distribution forecast, Skymet has predicted highest rainfall for central India that includes north Maharashtra, Konkan (Maharhtra, Goa, Karnataka), Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and parts of Madhya Pradesh. 
Its predictions have an error estimate of plus-minus eight percent.

The central region is expected to have 15 percent excess rainfall and 10 percent below normal with five percent chances of drought. 

However, the weather models suggest lowest rainfall for East and Northeast region, keeping it at 95 percent, with only five percent chance of excess rainfall.

"East India that comprises of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal may see better rainfall than Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura," the forecast said. 

For the south peninsula, the seasonal rainfall is likely tobe around 97 percent, with five percent chances of excess rainfall and 20 percent below normal.

According to Skymet, few parts of southern states are likely to see deficient rains this time. The forecast adds that Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may see some poor rainfall.

"Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Rayalaseem are likely to see deficient rains in July and August," Mahesh Palwat, Director Skymet told IANS.

The northwest region is likley to recieve 99 percent. 

"We expects that significant contribution would come from hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as compared to plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi and NCR," Palawat said.

According to Skymet, monsoon could be delayed for the regions including Delhi, north Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab. 

For the region, there are fiver percent chance of excess, 20 percent chance of above normal, ten percent chance of below normal, five percent chances of deficient and 60 percent chance of normal.

The average seasonal rainfall in India between 1951 to 2000 has been recorded at 89 cm. 

In 2017, the average seasonal rainfall over northwest India was 95 per cent, in central India 106 per cent, in southern peninsula 92 per cent and in northeast India 89 per cent. 

IMD in October 2017 said that while 72 per cent of the total area of the country received normal rainfall, 13 per cent area got excess rainfall and 15 per cent deficient seasonal rainfall.