Airtel Q2 operational numbers show recovery: Goldman

Goldman Sachs has given a thumbs up to Bharti`s operational numbers saying they are good since Jio`s entry in the market and shows signs of continued recovery.

"Revenue growth in 2Q20 in wireless was at 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Jio at 6 per cent q-o-q), slightly slower than the 2 per cent growth in 1Q20; however we note that 2Q is a seasonally weak quarter for telcos. At 7 per cent, year-on-year revenue growth for Bharti`s wireless business was the fastest since Jio`s launch in late 2016. We estimate this quarter`s numbers to include 50-100 bps of growth due to consolidation of Tata from July 2019," the broking firm said.

"Given continued conversion of voice-only subscribers to data on Bharti`s network, we expect low-single digit top-line growth to continue in the near term. In addition, with Jio recently announcing some increase in tariffs, we believe growth numbers could end up being higher for Bharti in the event the company raises tariffs in line with Jio," Goldman said.

The telcos has deferred the Q2 earnings. However, the telco released unaudited operational highlights for the India business late Tuesday, as "reviewed" by the board, which showed signs of continued recovery in core mobile services during the July-September quarter, it said.

"Subscriber base for wireless showed an uptick, after a decline of four consecutive quarters. While this may potentially be due to consolidation of Tata Tele, we note that TRAI data suggests Bharti`s wireless broadband subscriber additions continue to be healthy, at around 5 million for first two months of 2Q (July and August), vs flat for Vodafone Idea. However, Jio`s broadband customer additions continue to be 3x of Bharti, driven to some extent by strong traction of the JioPhone in our view," it added.

"Home broadband saw a sharp 6 per cent qoq decline in ARPU - we believe ARPU in this segment could remain under pressure due to competition from Jio. However, we see little risks to Bharti`s pay TV and enterprise businesses. Earlier this month, Airtel Africa (56 per cent owned by Bharti Airtel) reported a strong set of results, with revenues +10 per cent YoY," it said.

In Q2, Bharti`s Revenue from India mobile services grew 7.4 per cent on year and 0.8 per cent on quarter to Rs 10,812 crore as Airtel added 2.6 million subscribers and data usage continued to grow. The net addition of customers came after four straight quarters of losing users.

Monthly subscriber churn - the percentage of users leaving the network - dropped to 2.1 per cent from 2.6 per cent in the previous quarter, while average data usage per customer jumped almost 10 per cent on quarter and over 42 per cent on year to 13.13 GB, while voice usage per customer fell 4.5 per cent on quarter but rose 24 per cent on year.

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Quarterly average revenue per user fell 1 per cent on quarter to Rs 128, which was over 28 per cent higher on year.

Airtel`s Indian mobile services revenue came in below Reliance Jio`s Rs 12,354 crore, but average data usage and ARPU were higher that its rival`s 11.7 GB and Rs 120, respectively. The telco did not release its profit and loss statement and balance sheet on Tuesday.