Downward revision of current fiscal growth does not indicate economic slowdown: Garg

The downward revision of GDP growth in the current fiscal to 7 per cent does not indicate slowing down of economy as it is calculated on the basis of higher growth projections by the CSO for the previous fiscal, Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said Thursday.

"GDP estimates for 2018-19 released today needs to be viewed in correct perspective. Downward revision to 7 per cent from 7.2 per cent in 1st Adv Est is against revision of GDP of 2017-18 from 6.7 per cent to 7.2 per cent. Average GDP of two years taken together is 7.1 per cent as against earlier estimate of 6.95 per cent," he tweeted.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), which releases the national account data, had last month revised its forecast for GDP growth for 2017-18 to 7.2 per cent from the earlier estimate of 6.7 per cent. It also revised the actual growth rate in 2016-17 to 8.2 per cent from the 7.1 per cent estimated earlier.

"GDP growth at 7 per cent does not indicate slowing down when compared to 7.2 per cent of 1st Adv Est. This is on top of revised growth of 7.2 per cent of 2017-18 as against growth of 6.7 per cent per earlier estimate," Garg said.
The 2018-19 GDP growth of 7 per cent is the lowest in 5 years. In 2013-14 the growth was 6.4 pr cent, in 2014-15 it was 7.4 per cent, 8.2 per cent in 2015-16 and 2016-17 and 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.

Garg said absolute estimates of GDP for 2018-19 is higher in second Advance Estimates, which was released today, than first Advance Estimates (which was released in January).

"Nominal GDP at Rs 190.54 trillion is higher than (Rs) 188.41 lakh crore. Likewise, GDP at constant prices at (Rs) 141.00 trillion is higher than of (Rs) 139. 51 trillion of first Advance Estimates," Garg said.

He further said sectoral GVA (Gross Value Added) growth for 2018-19 continues to be very strong in manufacturing (8.1 per cent), electricity, gas etc (8 per cent) and construction (8.9 per cent).

"Performance of these sectors is also quite strong in Q3 as well, with construction actually rising by 9.6 per cent. Agriculture and mining slowed," he said.