Lok Sabha Elections result: Big reforms in investment, jobs, PM-AASHA, e-NAM, Triple Talaq expected during new NDA govt tenure

While the verdict of Lok Sabha 2019 Elections almost seems clear with NDA government coming back to power, experts have started to welcome the new decision of citizens. The coming five-year tenure of NDA government will likely be very busy in terms of reforms implemented. Garima Kapoor, Economist, Elara Capital on Lok Sabha Polls said, “Unlike the first five years, the solution to the problems is complex and requires a radical shift in the economic policy.” According to Garima, if the first five year term of the government were dominated by housing, roads and toilets, the next five would have to be dominated by investment, jobs and nursing of the dislocated financial sector.

Among immediate priorities, Garima expects Modi, led government to take measures to revive consumption, address financial sector dislocation by recapitalizing PSU banks, boost manufacturing sector to ensure job creation and solve the conundrum of skill shortage in the country to ensure employability.

She adds saying, “Reeling under consumption slowdown amid liquidity crisis in NBFC sector and lower terms of trade in the agriculture sector, optimism around India’s economic growth has come to a grinding halt. With limited fiscal space amid compelling priorities and electoral promises, the Modi government’s second term in office is likely to be more challenging than the first.”

On rural front, Kapoor highlighted that, having created a good platform for rural schemes in last five years, during his second term Modi led NDA is expected to focus on reviving terms of trade in agriculture. We expect the government under Modi to strengthen e-NAM, enhance micro-irrigation facilities, increase credit to agriculture and boost farm prices through effective implementation of schemes such as PM-AASHA.

Interestingly, by 2022, as per Kapoor, NDA is expected to gain majority in Rajya Sabha. This will enable them to pursue difficult legislations like Triple Talaq and electoral reforms which have been a part of its social agenda.

On stock performances, Kapoor adds, “With the ruling NDA dispensation set for another five year term, the political risk has reduced and the market expectation for policy continuity has been addressed. We believe, the election related exuberance could propel the markets in the near term and pose an upside risk to our CY’19 Nifty target of 12,000. However, the current level of corporate fundamentals, trade wars and the progress of monsoon will weigh on the markets.”

“From a portfolio positioning perspective, we recommend investment over consumption. In terms of asset class, we expect mid and small to outperform large cap,” says Kapoor.